Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 3.703744 4.058194 4.473975 5.010761 5.707553 6.619127 7.981838
2024-12-15 3.242105 3.672388 4.219020 5.003126 6.184084 8.106437 12.289461
2024-12-22 2.921845 3.365849 3.954062 4.850003 6.333821 9.188319 18.592066
2024-12-29 2.786548 3.265841 3.929407 5.010188 7.022151 11.985030 76.221462
2025-01-05 2.588170 3.053063 3.707643 4.802783 6.947234 12.959608 NaN
2025-01-12 2.422701 2.869337 3.504857 4.586413 6.776277 13.520213 NaN
2025-01-19 2.309920 2.749760 3.384114 4.488066 6.826970 15.129663 NaN
2025-01-26 2.268952 2.727716 3.407049 4.643741 7.532569 22.716705 NaN
2025-02-02 2.252969 2.739258 3.481879 4.910398 8.721241 66.082629 NaN
2025-02-09 2.195606 2.684507 3.442786 4.944146 9.268323 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 2.148171 2.641198 3.417899 5.002318 9.972653 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.064337 2.537732 3.283183 4.802578 9.557032 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.016141 2.489539 3.244418 4.821393 10.144823 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 1.965177 2.434581 3.190104 4.798143 10.569458 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.901557 2.356862 3.090668 4.656685 10.328674 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.883054 2.348513 3.112220 4.803151 11.803434 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.821320 2.269129 3.001649 4.613277 11.125246 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.761416 2.190960 2.890350 4.414360 10.355888 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.719222 2.139612 2.825141 4.323662 10.233908 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.710471 2.140744 2.853912 4.467147 11.749240 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.713071 2.159925 2.916804 4.711889 14.822754 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.690561 2.137358 2.900265 4.742770 16.206236 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.671575 2.119769 2.891994 4.795951 18.243095 NaN NaN